Home Field Advantage

THE SHORT ANSWER:

We didn't discuss whether or not to use it while I was commissioner. I don't remember if that discussion ever occurred with the former commissioner publically.

I simply carried it over from the previous regime as we had bigger fish to fry. I have no problem looking at it next offseason.

THE LONGER EXPLANATION:
Home Field Advantage changes the Long Gain chart. You use one line for "home" team and another line for "away" team and a third line if the game is played at a neutral field.

An example of the change is if you roll an 8 in the 3 column (its a variable chart with 6 different columns) you would get a +41 if you are on a neutral field. A +51 if you are the "home" team and a +31 if you are the "away" team.

The home field advantage makes big plays bigger for the home team and big plays smaller for the visiting team. Other than a roll of a 7 on the chart there is a 20 yard swing on all long gains. The home team gets about 20 more yards than a visiting team on the same long gain roll.

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FOR GEEKS ONLY:

Now there are some interesting study on home field advantage. During the 1970's, statistically, the home field advtage was high. It leveled out during the 1980's so that by the end of the decade there was no statistical advantage to home field. In the 1990's the statistical advantage began to return and today there is an advantage to the home team but it is not even during the season.

For the first two weeks of the season the home team has a very small advantage. (and in some studies the visiting team actually has the advantage.) Then the playing field levels and by week 10 the advantage has swung to the home team and it grows stronger each week and even stronger in the playoffs.

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TOPHER'S AMATEUR ANALYSIS FOR BIG TIME GEEKS:

My thoughts are the advantage was strong in the 1970's and earlier because travel was cumbersome and field conditions varied heavily. In the 1980's travel became faster and more relaxing and field conditions stabalized as most teams used the same Astroturf.

In the 1990's field personnel began to understand the advantages of variable field types and some teams returned to natural grass, other teams utilized different varieties of artificial turf. So today we have a wide variety of field types that teams have designed specifically for the playing style of their team.

This theory appears sound, except the variety in today's home field advantage that was not seen in previous decades. During the first couple of games each season the visiting team actually has the advantage. It then levels out and by week 9 or 10 the home team has a firm advantage and that increases each week.

One hypothesis is that home teams have jitters before playing before the sell out crowds in today's giant stadiums with significant home town publicity. In the 1970's a stadium might sell out for 70,000 fans. But the local paper still only had 2 reporters covering the club. Today that same stadium sells out for 70,000 fans but the local paper has 7 reporters covering the club and there are two local papers and 4 local television stations, not to mention national media and SportsCenter. The game appears to be more pressure-filled today than three decades ago.

But after a few weeks the players settle down and start learning how to use their specific field to their greater advantage.

Another theory is that today's athlete's are so scientifically fomulated that as the season wears on and travel interfere's with specific workouts the crash of the ensuing wear on a players body is greater than in years past.

Nobody knows for sure, but the statistics show a real and variable advntage.

The Adjusted Home Field Advantage stolen from twominutewarning.com

Week 1: 0
Week 2: 1.36
Week 3: 1.58
Week 4: 1.07
Week 5: 2.27
Week 6: 2.04
Week 7: 1.45
Week 8: 1.18
Week 9: 1.81
Week 10: 0.84
Week 11: 1.57
Week 12: 2.24
Week 13: 3.91
Week 14: 4.07
Week 15: 5.30
Week 16: 5.79

The number above is points per game the advantage is worth. Notice before week 11 the advantage is less than a safety. However, the last five weeks of the season the advantage grows until it is nearly two field goals!

Also notice the dip in the middle of the season. Personally, I attribute that to teams have the bye week before a game. It sort of refreshes people.

If that is true than it might suggest that today's athlete is so scientifically conditioned that the rigors of travel might interefer with the dietary and sleep needs of the athlete and have a greater affect on the athletic machine. A week of relative rest returns the athlete, for a time, back to near preseason form. But then the ensuing crash of the season really has the athletic machine's body wearing down the last quarter of the season.

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Alternate opinions:

It is worth notice that in 2008 there were articles in the Washington Post, CBSsports and ESPN claiming that the home field advantage effect has been lost and that in the past couple of years the shift has increased so that the visiting team actually has the advantage.

We don't have enough years to form an educated opinion. It is worth noting that the in-season analysis of sportswriters typically does not go back more than a couple of years and their data is questionable because they do not include the last quarter of the current season the writers are talking about. The last quarter is where the advantage is really seen.

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Topher's opinion:

In all I think that the home field advantage is minimal in the NFL until week 12. The last four games of the season there is a real home field advantage and it gets even stronger in the playoffs. Because most of the season there is no advantage than I advocate not using home field advantage. If the game allows it, I would advocate that home field advantage be used in the playoffs.

We're Back!

TFL 2009 is UNDERWAY! Trading is fast and furious and the excitement is increasing!

I have been on the downlow for a couple of months and am now gearing up and will begin to update all the files and should be back up and running smoothly shortly!